We scored every ZIP code in America for home-services demand

Key findings

The following statistics are drawn from AreaOps's full 2022 ACS 5-Year scoring run. All percentages reflect ZIP codes with sufficient demographic coverage (at least two of three primary signals: population, median income, median home value).

How the scoring model works

The AreaOps targeting score is an additive, explainable model. Every ZIP starts at 50. Named Census signals then nudge the score up or down based on per-vertical weights:

• Homeownership rate — high ownership is the single strongest positive signal for all home-services verticals. Renters don't authorize roof repairs or HVAC replacements.
• Housing age — median year built from ACS Table B25035. ZIP codes with a median home age of 25+ years score significantly higher for roofing and HVAC replacement demand.
• Median household income — income gates discretionary spending capacity. Low-income ZIPs convert at lower rates even when housing age and ownership are high.
• Single-family detached share — from ACS Table B25024. Multi-unit buildings dilute per-household demand for roofing, HVAC, and exterior services.
• Business density — establishment-per-household ratio from Census ZIP Business Patterns. Used as a positive signal for B2B verticals, negative for residential trades in highly commercial zones.

Weights differ per vertical — older housing is strongly positive for roofing but neutral for landscaping. See the full methodology →

Metro targeting heat map & scores

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Regional patterns

Midwest and mid-Atlantic lead for roofing

Markets like Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Cincinnati, and St. Louis score highest for roofing demand (avg 74–77/100). The pattern is consistent: housing stock built primarily between 1950–1980, high owner-occupancy rates, and median incomes in the range where homeowners have capacity to authorize major repairs. These are replacement markets, not new-construction markets.

Sun Belt dominates HVAC

Phoenix, Tampa, and Nashville lead for HVAC. The demand driver is extreme cooling degree days combined with aging central air systems — a large share of housing built in the 1970s–1990s before modern high-efficiency equipment became standard. Homeowners in these markets run their systems year-round, accelerating replacement cycles.

West Coast underperforms for residential trades

Los Angeles, Seattle, and Portland score below national average for roofing and HVAC. The primary drag is lower homeownership rates (high rental density) combined with younger average housing age in many suburban zones. West Coast markets are more competitive for landscaping, where renter-occupied multi-family doesn't suppress demand as much.

Explore by vertical

View scoring data, top metros, and ZIP-level scores for every launched public vertical:

Frequently asked questions

What data sources power the AreaOps ZIP code scoring model?

All scores are derived from US Census Bureau American Community Survey (ACS) 5-Year Estimates and US Census ZIP Business Patterns data. No proprietary or survey data is used. The 2022 ACS 5-Year release is the current source for demographics; business density figures come from Census ZBP.

What does a score of 75 mean for a ZIP code?

A score of 75/100 means that ZIP code is well above average for demand signals in that vertical. The model starts every ZIP at 50 and named signals — homeownership rate, housing age, median income, single-family share — nudge the score up or down based on per-vertical weights. A 75 is 'high demand' territory; AreaOps categorizes 70+ as high, 50-69 as medium, and below 50 as low.

How often are scores updated?

Scores are refreshed annually when the Census Bureau releases a new ACS 5-Year vintage. The current dataset uses the 2022 ACS 5-Year Estimates, published in December 2023. The 2023 vintage update will be applied upon release.

Can I download the full ZIP code dataset?

A summary CSV of top-scoring metros per vertical is available below. The full dataset — all US ZIP codes × all verticals — is available to AreaOps account holders. Start with a free account to explore the interactive targeting workbench.

Why do roofing scores vary so much by region?

Roofing demand correlates tightly with homeownership rate, housing age (roofs older than 20 years are more likely to need replacement), and storm-damage exposure. Midwest and mid-Atlantic markets score highest because housing stock is older (pre-1980) and owner-occupancy rates are high. West Coast markets score lower due to younger average housing age and higher renter rates.