Targeting Score Methodology
How AreaOps scores every ZIP code
The AreaOps targeting score is a 0–100 index that ranks every US ZIP code for demand fit within a specific home-services vertical. It is computed entirely from publicly available US Census Bureau data, with no proprietary black-box signals.
Data source: 2022 ACS 5-Year · Last updated: 2026-08-31
The scoring model
Every ZIP code starts at a baseline score of 50 — representing "average" for the vertical. Named demographic signals then nudge the score up or down based on how the ZIP compares to national norms for that signal.
The model is additive: each signal contributes independently. The final score is the baseline plus the sum of all signal contributions, clamped to the 0–100 range. No single signal can dominate the score on its own.
Each signal contribution is computed as:
Where base_value is derived from the ZIP's Census metric relative to the national distribution for that metric, and vertical_weight is a per-vertical constant that reflects how much that signal matters for the industry. Weights can be positive or negative — for example, high commercial density is a positive signal for B2B verticals but negative for residential trades.
The reasons behind each score — the specific signals that raised or lowered it — are stored alongside the score and surfaced in plain language inside the AreaOps UI. Operators can see exactly why a ZIP scored 78 vs 42.
Data sources
| Source | What we use | Update cadence |
|---|---|---|
| Census ACS 5-Year Estimates | Homeownership, income, home value, housing age, housing type | Annual (Census release) |
| Census ZIP Business Patterns | Establishment count, employee count, payroll per ZIP | Annual |
| Census TIGER/Line | ZIP code boundary geometries for map display | Annual |
All data is sourced directly from the US Census Bureau API. No third-party data vendors or estimated/modeled datasets are used in the scoring model.
Scoring signals
Each signal below adjusts the ZIP's baseline score. The weight (and direction) of each signal varies by vertical — see the per-vertical table below.
| Signal | Census table | Typical direction |
|---|---|---|
Homeownership rate Renters don't own the roof, HVAC system, or plumbing — homeowners do. Higher homeownership rate = more decision-makers for residential services. | Census ACS B25003 | Positive for all residential verticals |
Median household income Higher income correlates with willingness to pay for professional services vs DIY. Strong positive for premium verticals; lighter weight for commoditized services. | Census ACS B19013 | Positive (moderate) |
Median home value Owners of higher-value homes are more likely to protect their investment with professional maintenance and repair. | Census ACS B25077 | Positive |
Housing age (median year built) Older housing stock is a strong positive for roofing (roofs wear out), HVAC replacement, and windows & siding. Neutral for landscaping and pest control. | Census ACS B25035 | Vertical-dependent |
Single-family detached housing share Apartments and condos are typically maintained by property managers under contract, not individual homeowners. Higher single-family share = more accessible residential customers. | Census ACS B25024 | Positive for most residential trades |
Heating fuel mix Homes off the piped-gas main — oil, propane or electric — carry higher-ticket conversion work and face less utility-driven competition. Strong for HVAC and plumbing; irrelevant to roofing and landscaping. The ACS reports which fuel a home uses, not which equipment burns it, so it cannot distinguish electric resistance heat from an existing heat pump. | Census ACS B25040 | Vertical-dependent |
Recent owner move-ins Share of owner-occupied households that moved in within roughly five years. Projects follow a move, so this is the strongest available proxy for imminent work. Measured on owner-occupied households only; across all tenures it becomes a renter proxy and works against the homeownership signal. | Census ACS B25038 | Positive |
Vacancy rate (excluding seasonal) How many of a ZIP's households are actually serviceable. The seasonal and recreational bucket is subtracted, so a resort market is not punished for being empty in February — the signal means empty and decaying, not empty right now. | Census ACS B25002 + B25004 | Negative |
Storm exposure (hail) County-level annualised hail loss ratio, expressed as a national percentile. The loss ratio is normalised by the value of property exposed, so it measures how hard hail hits each building rather than how much property a county contains. County resolution: damage varies street by street within one, and this is not a strike record for the ZIP. | FEMA National Risk Index | Positive for exterior trades |
Business density (establishments/ZIP) Dense commercial ZIP codes are strong targets for commercial HVAC, pest control, and landscaping. For roofing and windows, high commercial density signals fewer residential decision-makers. | Census ZIP Business Patterns | Positive for B2B verticals; negative for residential trades |
Per-vertical signal emphasis
The same ZIP code can score differently across verticals because the signals that predict demand vary by industry. The table below shows which signals are most heavily weighted for each supported vertical.
| Vertical | Top-weighted signals |
|---|---|
| Roofing | Homeownership, Housing age, Single-family share |
| HVAC | Homeownership, Housing age, Single-family share |
| Plumbing | Homeownership, Housing age, Single-family share |
| Electrical | Homeownership, Housing age, Single-family share |
| Landscaping | Homeownership, Single-family share, Income |
| Pest Control | Homeownership, Single-family share, Household density |
| Windows & Siding | Homeownership, Housing age, Single-family share |
| Gutters | Homeownership, Single-family share, Housing age |
| Moving & Relocation | Homeownership, Household density, Income |
| Professional Services | Income, Business density, Home value |
| Real Estate | Homeownership, Income, Home value |
| Insurance | Homeownership, Income, Storm exposure |
| Healthcare / Practices | Income, Household density, Population |
Exact weights are available to AreaOps subscribers and can be inspected via the Settings → Targeting screen. Operators can apply plain-language emphasis toggles ("Focus on older homes", "Focus on higher-income areas") that multiply the relevant signal weights without exposing raw numbers.
Frequently asked questions
- What data does AreaOps use to compute targeting scores?
- Most scoring signals come from the US Census Bureau's American Community Survey (ACS) 5-Year Estimates: homeownership rate, median household income, median home value, median home year built (used to derive housing age), single-family-detached housing share, heating fuel mix, vacancy rate, share of owners who moved in within the last five years, and population and household counts. Business density comes from the Census ZIP Business Patterns dataset. Storm exposure comes from FEMA's National Risk Index and is measured at county level, not ZIP level.
- How often is the data updated?
- The underlying Census ACS data is updated annually when the Census Bureau releases a new 5-Year Estimate vintage. AreaOps ingests the new vintage and recomputes all scores within 30 days of the release.
- Why is the score different across verticals for the same ZIP code?
- Signal weights differ by vertical. A ZIP with very old housing stock (pre-1980) scores high for roofing — older roofs need replacement sooner — but that same signal is less relevant for HVAC or landscaping, which weight homeownership and income more heavily. The additive model adjusts each signal's contribution based on the vertical's profile.
- What does a score of 50 mean?
- Every ZIP starts at 50. Signals with above-average values for the vertical push the score higher; below-average values push it lower. A score near 50 means the ZIP is roughly average across all relevant signals for that vertical — not a strong target, but not actively weak either.
- Can I customize the weights?
- Yes. In Settings → Targeting, operators can toggle plain-language emphasis settings ('Focus on older homes', 'Focus on higher-income areas', etc.) that apply a multiplier to the relevant signals without exposing raw numbers. Advanced users can also override per-signal weights directly.
- Are scores available for every ZIP code in the US?
- Scores are computed for all residential and mixed-use ZIP codes where Census ACS data is available. PO Box-only, military, and purely commercial ZIP codes are flagged and excluded from primary targeting recommendations.
See the scores for your market
Browse every ZIP in any US metro, filtered by vertical — no account required to explore. Start a free trial to save territories and manage your brands.
Apply this methodology to your vertical
See how the scoring model applies — and what thresholds matter most — across home-services verticals:
Or see the full national scoring dataset: ZIP Code Scores for Home Services →